2.1 Framework Overview
The methodological approach taken here is deliberately integrative. Rather than treating fairness as a post-hoc correction — a layer applied after a model has already been trained — this framework builds fairness constraints into each stage of the pipeline, from data integration through causal modeling, geospatial prediction, and resource optimization. The architecture follows four sequential but interconnected layers: (i) multi-source data integration and preprocessing, (ii) Structural Causal Model (SCM) construction for bias identification, (iii) geospatial machine learning for spatially-aware demand forecasting, and (iv) fairness-constrained multi-objective optimization for resource allocation. Each layer informs the next, and fairness considerations propagate forward across all of them (Chen et al., 2023).
2.2 Data Integration and Preprocessing
Five primary data sources were integrated for this study (Table 1). Healthcare utilization data — including weekly hospital admissions, ICU occupancy rates, and disease incidence by county — were drawn from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and state health agency repositories covering 2020–2024. Supply chain logistics data, comprising facility-level inventory levels, transportation cost per delivery, and delivery time in hours, were obtained from hospital systems supplemented with synthetically generated records where real supply chain records were restricted; the synthetic component was generated using distributional parameters derived from published healthcare logistics benchmarks and validated against the non-synthetic subset. SDOH data at census tract and county levels — income, race and ethnicity, educational attainment, and employment status — were sourced from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey (2019–2023). Geographic and adjacency data were obtained from the Census TIGER/Line shapefiles. Environmental health risk indicators, including particulate matter (PM2.5), proximity-to-hazard indices, and Environmental Justice (EJ) screening scores, came from the EPA's EJSCREEN database (2019–2024) (Kino et al., 2021).
All datasets were aligned to a common weekly temporal granularity. Spatial harmonization was performed using geographic identifiers (FIPS codes, ZIP codes) through GIS spatial join operations, enabling integration of healthcare, SDOH, environmental, and mobility data at consistent spatial units. A composite Vulnerability Index (VI) was constructed for each geographic unit as a weighted linear combination of standardized income deprivation, racial minority proportion, educational disadvantage score, and environmental risk index — weights derived from principal component analysis of these four domains, following the methodological approach used in the Social Vulnerability Index (Flanagan et al., 2011). An Accessibility Index was calculated using straight-line and road-network distance to the nearest primary care facility and specialist facility, weighted by provider density per 10,000 population from HRSA Area Health Resources Files. Missing data were addressed using multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE), with five imputation iterations; imputed values were evaluated for plausibility against observed marginal distributions prior to inclusion.
2.3 Structural Causal Model for Bias Identification
The causal modeling component addresses a problem that feature engineering alone cannot resolve: distinguishing structural suppression of healthcare demand from legitimate variation in clinical need. A Structural Causal Model (SCM) was formulated following the framework of Pearl (2009) and Hernán and Robins (2020). The causal graph specifies the following directed relationships:
SDOH variables (income, race, education, employment) → Healthcare demand
Environmental determinants (PM2.5, hazard proximity, EJ index) → Healthcare demand
Mobility → Disease transmission → Healthcare demand
Healthcare demand → Resource allocation decisions
Accessibility constraints → Resource allocation decisions
Causal identification was evaluated using the backdoor and frontdoor criteria (Pearl, 2009). Structural equations were estimated using linear and non-parametric regression with bootstrapped confidence intervals (n = 1,000 bootstrap samples) to quantify the magnitude of each causal pathway. Do-calculus interventions — specifically do(SDOH = counterfactual value) operations — were applied to estimate what allocation decisions would look like under hypothetical conditions of socioeconomic equality, enabling separation of allocable bias from clinically justified demand variation (Makhlouf et al., 2020; Kusner et al., 2017).
Path-specific fairness constraints were then derived from the SCM: pathways running through SDOH variables that independently predict reduced allocation — after controlling for clinical demand — were identified as discriminatory paths. These paths were blocked in the downstream optimization layer without disrupting
Table 1. Summary of datasets used in the fairness-aware AI framework. Overview of the five primary data sources integrated for demand forecasting, supply chain optimization, and equity analysis, including data type, key variables, temporal coverage, spatial resolution, and analytical purpose. Datasets span healthcare utilization records (CDC/state health agencies), supply chain logistics data (hospital systems/synthetic), socio-economic SDOH data (U.S. Census Bureau/ACS), geographic reference data (Census TIGER/GIS), and public health indicators (County Health Rankings). All datasets were harmonized to a common weekly temporal granularity and aligned spatially via FIPS/ZIP code identifiers.
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Dataset Name
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Source
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Data Type
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Key Variables
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Temporal Coverage
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Spatial Resolution
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Purpose
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Healthcare Utilization Data
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CDC / State Health Agencies
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Time-series
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Hospital admissions, ICU usage, disease incidence
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2020–2024
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County / ZIP code
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Demand forecasting
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Supply Chain Logistics Data
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Hospital Systems / Synthetic
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Operational
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Inventory levels, transportation cost, delivery time
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2020–2024
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Facility-level
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Optimization modeling
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SDOH Dataset
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U.S. Census Bureau / ACS
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Socio-economic
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Income, race, education, employment
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2019–2023
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Census tract / county
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Equity analysis
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Geographic Data
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Census TIGER / GIS
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Spatial
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Coordinates, adjacency matrices
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Static
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County / ZIP code
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Geospatial modeling
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Public Health Indicators
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County Health Rankings
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Composite
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Health access, vulnerability index
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2020–2023
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County-level
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Risk adjustment
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Table 2. Mapping of feature categories to model components and analytical roles. Correspondence between input feature categories (clinical, supply chain, SDOH, geographic, mobility, environmental, accessibility, and cost) and their source datasets, associated model components (predictive ML, geospatial ML, causal model, or optimization model), and functional role within the overall framework. This mapping clarifies how heterogeneous data inputs are routed through the causal, predictive, and optimization layers to jointly inform demand forecasting, fairness correction, and resource allocation.
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Feature Category
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Variables
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Source Dataset
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Model Component
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Role
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Clinical Demand Features
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Admissions, ICU usage, disease incidence
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Healthcare Utilization
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Predictive ML Model
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Demand forecasting
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Supply Chain Features
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Inventory levels, transportation cost, delivery time
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Logistics Data
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Optimization Model
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Resource allocation
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SDOH Features
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Income, race, education, employment
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Census / ACS
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Causal + ML Models
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Fairness & disparity modeling
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Geographic Features
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Coordinates, adjacency matrix
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GIS Data
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Geospatial ML Model
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Spatial dependency learning
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Mobility Features
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Population movement, travel patterns
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Mobility Data
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Predictive ML Model
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Demand propagation
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Environmental Features
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Air pollution, hazard index, EJ indicators
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EPA / EJSCREEN
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Causal + ML Models
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Risk-adjusted demand
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Accessibility Features
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Facility distance, provider density
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HRSA Data
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Optimization + ML
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Access equity constraints
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Cost Features
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Claims cost, payer type
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CMS Data
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Optimization Model
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Cost minimization
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pathways representing legitimate clinical heterogeneity (Kashyap et al., 2026).
2.4 Geospatial Machine Learning for Demand Forecasting
Healthcare demand at location i and time t was modeled as:
D(i,t) = f(X(i,t), SDOH(i), Geo(i), Env(i))
where X(i,t) represents clinical and operational features (admissions, ICU usage, disease incidence), SDOH(i) captures the socio-economic and demographic profile of geographic unit i, Geo(i) encodes spatial adjacency and connectivity attributes, and Env(i) incorporates environmental risk indicators.
The predictive architecture combined a Graph Neural Network (GNN) for spatial dependency learning with a gradient boosting model (XGBoost) for tabular feature integration. In the GNN layer, each county or ZIP code was represented as a node; edges were constructed based on spatial adjacency (shared borders) and mobility flow strength (above the 75th percentile of observed movement between unit pairs). Node features consisted of the full SDOH and environmental feature vectors. Two graph convolutional layers with ReLU activation and dropout regularization (p = 0.3) were applied. The resulting node embeddings were concatenated with XGBoost-derived feature importance scores from the tabular features and passed through a fully connected output layer predicting weekly demand per geographic unit. Training used an 80/10/10 train/validation/test split across temporal windows, with temporal cross-validation to prevent data leakage across time periods. Hyperparameters were tuned using Bayesian optimization with five-fold cross-validation on the training partition. Model performance was evaluated using Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) on the held-out test set (Shang et al., 2024).
2.5 Fairness-Constrained Multi-Objective Optimization
Resource allocation was formulated as a mixed-integer multi-objective optimization problem. The objective function was:
Min [α · C(x) + β · F(x)]
subject to:
— Inventory balance constraints: supply at each facility ≥ minimum service threshold per period
— Demand satisfaction constraints: allocation to geographic unit i ≥ predicted demand D(i,t) × minimum coverage rate (set at 85% for baseline and vulnerable-group-adjusted upward to 92% for units with VI > 0.65)
— Fairness constraints: demographic parity gap across socio-economic quintiles ≤ 0.10; access inequality index ≤ 0.15
— Capacity constraints: facility throughput and transportation capacity upper bounds
— Non-negativity: all allocation variables x(i,t) ≥ 0
Here, C(x) denotes total logistics cost (transportation + inventory holding + unmet demand penalty), and F(x) is the fairness loss function, defined as the weighted sum of the Fairness Disparity Index (FDI) across demographic groups and the geographic access gap. The parameters α and β are scalarization weights; Pareto frontier analysis was conducted by varying α from 0 to 1 in increments of 0.1 (with β = 1 − α) to trace the efficiency-fairness frontier. The model was solved using Gurobi 10.0 with the mixed-integer programming solver; optimality tolerance was set at 0.1% gap (Banja et al., 2023; Bertsimas et al., 2011).
2.6 Comparative Model Design
Three models were evaluated:
M1 (Baseline): Gradient boosting demand model without SDOH features; cost-minimization optimization without fairness constraints.
M2 (SDOH-Informed): Same architecture with SDOH features included in the predictive model; no fairness constraints in optimization.
M3 (Proposed): Full framework — SCM-corrected features, GNN + gradient boosting prediction, fairness-constrained optimization.
Experiments covered 24 months of weekly data (2022–2023) with a 6-month holdout for testing. Spatial analysis was conducted at county level (n = 312 counties across 6 U.S. states). Three operational scenarios were tested: normal operation, high-demand surge (2–3× baseline, simulating a pandemic wave), and resource constraint (25% supply reduction across all facilities).
2.7 Evaluation Metrics
Predictive accuracy: RMSE and MAE on the test set.
Operational efficiency: total logistics cost ($M), order fulfillment rate (%), and average delivery time (hours).
Fairness: Fairness Disparity Index (FDI, a composite of demographic parity gap and geographic access inequality), equalized access rate (%), and demographic parity gap across socio-economic quintiles.
All pairwise model comparisons were evaluated using paired t-tests across the 24-week test period (α = 0.05), with effect sizes reported as Cohen's d. Ablation analysis was conducted by progressively removing individual fairness-relevant variable groups from M3 and measuring the resulting change in FDI.
2.8 Ethical Considerations
This study used only de-identified, publicly available, or synthetically generated data; no individual-level patient data were accessed. Ethical justification for the fairness constraints was grounded in the principle that supply chain allocation systems operating under structural inequity cannot be considered ethically neutral (Rajkomar et al., 2018; Vyas et al., 2020). Interpretability was supported through causal pathway visualization and SHAP-based feature attribution on the gradient boosting component.